Document Type

Article

Publication Date

8-14-2007

Publication Title

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Abstract

The rise of 401(k) plans and the decline of defined benefit plans will have an important effect on the wealth of future retirees. Changing demographic structure also will affect the aggregate stock of retirement wealth. We project the stock of assets held in retirement plans and the average retirement saving of retirees through 2040. Our projections show large increases in wealth at retirement, especially if the returns on corporate equities are comparable with historical returns. Retirement wealth will grow, however, even if equity returns fall substantially below their historical level.

DOI

10.1073/pnas.0611596104

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