Population Health Metrics
Background: Modifiable risks account for a large fraction of disease and death, but clinicians and patients lack tools to identify high risk populations or compare the possible benefit of different interventions.
Methods: We used data on the distribution of exposure to 12 major behavioral and biometric risk factors inthe US population, mortality rates by cause, and estimates of the proportional hazards of risk factor exposure from published systematic reviews to develop a risk prediction model that estimates an adult's 10 year mortality risk compared to a population with optimum risk factors. We compared predicted risk to observed mortality in 8,241 respondents in NHANES 1988-1994 and NHANES 1999-2004 with linked mortality data up to the end of 2006.
Lim, Stephen S.; Carnahan, Emily; Nelson, Eugene C.; Gillespie, Catherine W.; Mokdad, Ali H.; Murray, Christopher J. L.; and Fisher, Elliott S., "Validation of a New Predictive Risk Model: Measuring the Impact of the Major Modifiable Risks of Death for Patients and Populations" (2015). Open Dartmouth: Faculty Open Access Articles. 1659.