Date of Award

Spring 2026

Document Type

Thesis (Master's)

Department or Program

Master of Arts in Liberal Studies

First Advisor

Evelyn Lechner

Second Advisor

Peter Deshazo

Third Advisor

Donald Pease

Abstract

The US and China desire self-sufficiency in the manufacture of semiconductors to reduce their reliance on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). This reliance on TMSC is known as the ‘Silicon Shield’ as it gives Taiwan power in the US-China rivalry, due to their dependence on the semiconductors produced on the island. This thesis examines whether the Shield can remain a stabilizer in the relationship and how Donald Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy has accelerated its erosion, turning US security commitments from unconditional to conditional.

Three main conditions give the Shield strength:  Taiwan’s monopoly over advanced semiconductor manufacturing, the security commitments from the US to the island, and the cost of conflict on the island deterring military action. The analysis distinguishes between the technological lead that TSMC has on the semiconductor market, and Taiwan’s geographic monopoly. The diversification of TSMC fabrication plants globally is a significant factor eroding the Shield.

Looking at developments through Trump’s 2 terms, the thesis finds that the Shield remains a key stabilizer in the US-China relationship but is weakening. TSMC remains the technological leader in the semiconductor industry; however, the manufacturing monopoly is eroding with fabrication plants being established in Arizona and China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), now producing some types of semiconductors domestically. Historically, Taiwan has enjoyed an unconditional security commitment from the US but Trump’s approach to foreign policy has altered this, significantly damaging one of the 3 pillars that form the Shield.

This thesis concludes that 2027-2030 will be a period of vulnerability, as the advanced technological deterrence may remain, but manufacturing protection will be damaged by changing security commitments and increasing global fabrication plants. The Shield will endure, if the technological superiority of TSMC remains and the cost of conflict is prohibitive, but its reliability is falling.

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